Introduction
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) – a drop-in fuel compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure – is the most viable pathway for aviation emissions reduction over the next two decades. The aviation sector faces growing pressure to decarbonize as regulations and voluntary airline commitments require reductions in lifecycle emissions. Unlike ground transportation, aviation has limited near-term alternatives, with battery and hydrogen technologies remaining technically constrained at scale. However, SAF can be produced at scale, has the advantage of creating domestic markets for agricultural and forestry feedstocks, and can place American firms at the forefront of clean energy innovation, enhancing long-term competitiveness in the global aviation sector.
Yet, widespread SAF deployment remains limited by high and uncertain costs. Current production costs are estimated at two to five times those of conventional jet fuel, with economics heavily influenced by agricultural and forestry input markets. Feedstock price volatility—particularly for corn, oilseeds, and forestry residues—can materially affect SAF’s cost competitiveness, complicating investment, contracting, and policy planning.
Greater clarity around SAF price trajectories is needed for effective policy design, private capital mobilization, logistics optimization, long-term contracting, and risk-management strategies.
Below you will find infographics that summarize the current state of the SAF market, including:
- Price Trajectories for SAF and Conventional Jet Fuel
- Global SAF Production Capacities
- Current SAF Offtake Agreements by airline, and by producer
- A Policy and Standards Inventory of Federal, State, and International Policies influencing SAF production, deployment and market uptake.
If you have questions or comments about these dashboards, please contact us at epicenter@gatech.edu.
In addition to these dashboards, Dr. Daniel Matisoff, Professor in the Carter School of Public Policy at Georgia Tech, is examining the cost drivers and market dynamics across the SAF value chain. Learn more at the end of this dashboard.
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SAF prices (blue) are consistently higher than conventional jet fuel (orange), though the SAF trajectory exhibits gradual long-term decline driven by technology improvement, increasing scale, and maturing supply chains. In contrast, conventional jet fuel prices remain comparatively stable, aside from short-term volatility such as the 2022 spike. The trend suggests that while cost parity is not yet achieved, SAF’s price curve is slowly converging downward, and future reductions will likely depend on learning-curve effects, feedstock stability, and federal/state incentives such as tax credits under 40B/45Z. Monitoring the gap between SAF and the anchor price will be increasingly important as offtake agreements and policy frameworks evolve.
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The United States leads globally in SAF capacity by a wide margin, in both current and planned SAF capacity, reflecting strong policy incentives (e.g., IRA tax credits), existing biofuel infrastructure, and significant announced project pipelines. China also shows a substantial growth trajectory with high planned capacity, followed by Japan, South Korea, and several European countries with more modest but expanding pipelines. The large “Rest of World” bar underscores growing interest in emerging markets, though most capacity there remains aspirational. The overall trend points to rapid expansion globally, with planned capacity far exceeding current output—a signal that many projects remain contingent upon final investment decisions and that policy stability, financing conditions, and feedstock availability will determine how much of this pipeline ultimately materializes.
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As the above shows, HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) overwhelmingly leads today’s market, reflecting its technological maturity, established supply chains, and lower capital intensity. Large planned additions suggest that HEFA will remain the backbone of early-stage SAF deployment until feedstocks (typically used cooking oil) are exhausted. However, significant planned capacity is also visible for Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), Power-to-Liquids (PtL/e-fuels), and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) pathways—indicating a shift toward technologies that offer greater long-term scalability and deeper carbon-reduction potential. Co-processing shows modest current capacity, while pathways such as hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and pyrolysis remain in early development. The trend suggests that while HEFA will dominate near-term supply, achieving 2030–2050 climate goals will require accelerating investment into ATJ, PtL, and FT technologies as feedstock limitations and policy incentives push the sector toward higher-impact pathways.
The data show that United Airlines is the dominant offtaker by a very large margin, reflecting its strategic posture as an early leader in SAF procurement and its multi-billion-gallon forward-purchase portfolio. Other major players include airline alliances such as Oneworld, as well as Delta, Southwest, Air France-KLM, and American, each holding sizable but comparatively smaller commitments. The “All Other Airlines” category accounts for a significant aggregate volume and a large number of agreements, signaling broadening participation beyond early adopters. A key trend is that while a few carriers anchor the market with huge commitments, the ecosystem is rapidly diversifying as airlines seek to meet 2030–2050 net-zero targets, comply with emerging mandates (e.g., EU ReFuelEU), and hedge against future SAF availability and pricing risk.
These data show that Gevo holds the largest volume of contracted offtakes, reflecting its aggressive pursuit of airline partnerships and its position as a leading ATJ-focused developer. Fulcrum, Alder Fuels, and Cemvita also have sizable commitments, demonstrating strong interest in emerging pathways such as waste-to-jet and biotechnology-driven SAF. Established players such as Shell, Neste, and DG Fuels occupy meaningful positions, supported by their broader fuel portfolios and large-scale project pipelines. The “All Other Producers” block represents a substantial cumulative volume and a large number of agreements, highlighting rising diversification among early-stage developers. The overall trend suggests a rapidly expanding competitive landscape: while a few developers dominate large early contracts, a growing number of smaller producers are securing offtakes as airlines hedge against supply risk and broaden their SAF portfolios.
Ongoing Research
Research is being conducted by Dr. Daniel Matisoff in Georgia Tech’s Carter School of Public Policy in three integrated phases that connect agricultural input costs to techno-economic pricing and regional economic impacts. By explicitly accounting for uncertainty, the framework being developed will deliver actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders seeking to accelerate SAF adoption. Please contact Dr. Daniel Matisoff at matisoff@gatech.edu to learn more about this integrated architecture and opportunities for targeted application to your needs.
